SCPD's Predictive Policing Program Now Being Used in Europe

SCPD's predictive policing program is now being used in the United Kingdom. The Kent Police Department reached out to SCPD for help in implementing the program. From an article just published in Police Oracle, the UK's largest provider of police news and information:

"Kent Police has begun a trial of a predictive policing model from the USA that assesses several years’ worth of crime data and human behavior to predict the areas in which offenses are likely to take place.
Det Ch Supt Jon Sutton, who has led on the implementation of [predictive policing] in the North Kent Division, told PoliceOracle.com that Chief Constable Ian Learmonth had heard about of the system, devised by academics and tested by police forces in California, and had expressed an interest in adopting it.

The trial has seen the force feed five years’ worth of crime data into the system, which uses an algorithm to predict where offences will take place. The system splits the North Kent division into 500-square feet zones and lists them in priority order as to where crime is most likely to occur.

Officers receive updates from the system twice a day and then make a decision as to where to deploy, Det Ch Supt Sutton said.He asserted that the system was among the most advanced predictive policing models being used in the country. The force is ultimately anticipating rolling out the initiative to the rest of the force for a year. Det Ch Supt Sutton said the method had been found in other tests to be twice as effective as “hotspotting” in which officers identify high-crime areas."

Russian TV Visits SCPD to Cover Predictive Policing

Channel One Russia, the highest-rated news television station in Russia, visited Santa Cruz Police yesterday to learn more about predictive policing. The station sent a crew to learn more about the program and share the information in a feature story in Russia in a few weeks. Channel 1 met with Dr. George Mohler of Santa Clara University, the developer of the predictive policing algorithm, as well as SCPD officers and staff to discuss how it works. A link to the broadcast will be provided when it airs. 

SCPD Presents on Predictive Policing to Local Organizations

This week the Santa Cruz Police Department is leading two presentations on predictive policing, both to local rotary organizations. The presentations, to the Freedom and Santa Cruz Rotary organizations, come a little over a year after the department implemented the program. Other cities have in the Bay Area have implemented the program and police departments throughout the country have reached out to SCPD about using the program in their areas.

The software program, which uses a complex mathematical algorithm to predict hot spot locations, is used every day by the department to help deploy resources.

Czech TV Visits Santa Cruz Police

A crew from Czech Television (or Ceska Televize) visited the Santa Cruz Police Department yesterday to do a story on predictive policing. The crew is from Prague but working on assignment in Washington DC and flew out for the day to cover the program. The program will run on the largest station in the Czech Republic with a news viewership of approximately 3 million people. Czech TV met with officers to learn about the program including Officer Armando Agular, Dr. George Mohler of Santa Clara and Crime Analyst Zach Friend. They learned about the program from other media coverage.

German TV Program Planetopia to Feature SCPD

The German TV program Planetopia, a science-based news magazine program, will air a feature on the department's predictive policing program on June 18th. The crew visited about two months ago for the filming and interviewed a number of officers about the program. If you happen to speak German you can watch the program on their website by clicking here.

French Science Magazine to Highlight SCPD

The French Science Magazine "Sciences et Avenir" will be in Santa Cruz today and tomorrow to meet with the Santa Cruz Police Department and Dr. George Mohler regarding the predictive policing program. The magazine will meet Crime Analyst Zach Friend, Lt. Bernie Escalante and Deputy Chief Steve Clark to view the program. There has been interest from law enforcement agencies in France to implement predictive policing. The magazine will also be reaching out to LAPD regarding their current test of the program. The magazine will be highlighting the department and program in a few months.

Predictive Policing 5 Month Overview

The Santa Cruz Police Department is five months into the groundbreaking predictive policing study. We plan a full evaluation, with professors at Santa Clara University and UCLA, in January. But we've done a preliminary look at the first five months of data.  

The program predicts hot spot locations based on seven years-worth of historical data. It is updated daily and suggests patrol deployment based on a combination of historic and current data.

So, is it working?

In the first six months of 2011 before we started the project we were on pace to set a record for the number of burglaries in our city. Since we have implemented the program we are now averaging 20% fewer burglaries than in the first six months. 

How does this compare to 2010?

Compared with the same 5 months in 2010 we've seen a 11% decline in the number of burglaries. December (the six month of the study) has historically been problematic for burglaries. Vehicle burglaries tend to rise near the holidays (meaning the holidays have a higher than average monthly burglary rate). This was not the case last year but has been the case in 6 of the last 10 years. 

We are interested to see if the program can continue to reduce the overall number of burglaries in our city and we will provide the full analysis compiled by the professors (which will hopefully be completed at some point in late January). Chief Kevin Vogel, Deputy Chiefs Rick Martinez and Steve Clark and Crime Analyst Zach Friend will work with Professor George Mohler and Professor Jeff Brantingham on the final analysis.

Time Magazine Names SCPD's Predictive Policing as one of top 50 Inventions of 2011

The Santa Cruz Police Department’s predictive policing program was named by Time Magazine as one of the fifty best inventions of 2011. In the November 28, 2011 issue (already in newsstands) the magazine said the program helps the department “get ahead of the bad guys.” In the last few years, the prestigious Invention Issue listed the iPad, electric car and even devices that help people walk again among their top inventions.

“We are honored to be recognized by Time Magazine for our predictive policing program” Police Chief Kevin Vogel said. “Innovation is the key to modern policing and we’re proud to be leveraging technology in a way that keeps our community safer.”

The predictive policing program, developed by Dr. George Mohler of Santa Clara University and a team from UCLA, uses an earthquake aftershock model to determine where future crimes will occur. Similar to the predictability of an aftershock after an earthquake, the models predicts that there will be “aftercrimes” after an initial crime. The program does not cost the agency anything.

This groundbreaking model is now being used by the Los Angeles Police Department. This week, LAPD invited Lt. Bernie Escalante and Zach Friend down to speak to roll calls about the program and aid in their launch.

In the first few months of using the program the Santa Cruz Police Department has seen a decrease in the targeted crime types (burglaries and motor vehicle thefts). The program has shown to be much more accurate in predicting where crimes will occur, breaking down targeted locations into 500 foot by 500 foot areas. In January the department will work with the researchers to do a full analysis of the program. Lessons that are being learned by SCPD and LAPD will be integrated into the next generation of the program for other law enforcement agencies.

Department Featured on German and Swiss Television

The Santa Cruz Police Department's predictive policing program has begun to receive more international attention. The German television station N24 sent a crew to the department last week to focus on the program and also meet with Dr. George Mohler at Santa Clara University. This week, a national Swiss television station will also be by the department for the same coverage. Both stations sent crews as cuts to staff have been occurring in their respective countries and they hope the program will aid their police agencies during these cuts.

Popular Science Magazine Feature (Link Provided)

We blogged earlier that Popular Science Magazine did an extensive feature on SCPD's predictive policing program. Now they have posted the link!

Click here to view it.

Popular Science Magazine Features SCPD!

Popular Science Magazine, with a readership of over 7 million monthly readers, is featuring the Santa Cruz Police Department in this month's (November) issue. While the issue has just hit the newsstands (and you can purchase at your local bookstore) at this time no online link is available. The magazine is featuring our predictive policing program and spent two days at our department in July. The feature-length article takes an in-depth look at the program, the history of predictive analysis in general, and other agencies considering the program. It is an outstanding article and we're proud to be featured by Popular Science!

KUSP Features SCPD

KUSP, the local NPR affiliate, featured SCPD's predictive policing program. Deputy Chief Steve Clark provided an overview of the program. You can listen to the podcast here.

Brazilian TV to Feature SCPD's Predictive Policing

For all of you fluent in Portuguese, Globo TV  sent a crew in from New York to feature the SCPD predictive policing program. The program will run as a feature broadcast in Brazilian in the coming week. The reporter met with Dr. George Mohler of Santa Clara University to discuss the algorithm and Zach Friend and Lt. Larry Richard of Santa Cruz Police to understand its operational implications.

Government Technology Magazine Features SCPD

The Santa Cruz Police Department was featured by Government Technology Magazine for the predictive policing program. Government Technology Magazine is one of the main magazines looking at how technology is leveraged in government and how to make it more efficient. While we know many of you already subscribe to Government Technology we thought we'd provide a link just in case!

Click here for the link

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ABC World News Story on Predictive Policing

From ABC News...

Santa Cruz police are using a computer program to predict where crimes will likely happen in an effort to better utilize its shrinking force.

Police in Santa Cruz are using a complicated math equation to predict where crimes will likely happen in an effort to better utilize their shrinking force stop the bad guys in their tracks.

"Crime is not random," said Zach Friend, the department's crime analyst. "You can actually predict the kinds of things that people will do."

The computer program utilizing this algorithm is at the center of a six-month effort called "predictive policing" that the department started in July. Eight years of crime data were first entered into the program so it could track and pinpoint crimes.

Now it spits out 10 detailed maps daily complete with "hot spots" -- a forecast of where new crimes are most likely to occur.

A specific crime is broken down to the two most likely chunks of time it will probably occur, say noon to 1 p.m. or 4 to 5 p.m., so if an officer is working during that time, he or she knows to check that area.
In the last decade, Santa Cruz saw a 20 percent reduction in its staff but a 30 percent increase in calls for service, according to Friend.

"As we continue budget cuts, as we are facing less and less police officers on the streets, we need to leverage technology to become more effective and efficient," he said.

Lt.  Bernie Escalante said that with fewer officers on the streets in Santa Cruz, the technology helped fill the gap.  "They give you a map and a square [a hot spot]," he said. "It's very easy to understand [and] hard to screw it up."

It seems to be working. Friend said that since the program's launch, the algorithm had correctly predicted 40 percent of crimes and had led to five arrests. In the last six weeks, Santa Cruz also saw a reduction in property crimes including car and home burglaries. Police said burglaries were down 27 percent in July compared to the same month last year.

Fred Meng, the owner of Cafe Delmarette, said he wished predictive policing had started before a burglar broke into his eatery and stole the cash box.

"Somebody kicked in the door and was able to move the glass enough that they could get in," he said. "Maybe this [the computer program] would have helped."

As reported by The New York Times, the program was developed by a group of researchers including two mathematicians and an anthropologist and based on an earthquake aftershock model.

Friend said the program told officers where a crime was likely to occur as well as when and the type of crime based on analyzing and detecting patterns of past crime data. The information changes as new crimes happen and that data is entered into the program.

"Think of yourself as a police officer," Friend said, "and you have limited amount of patrol time. ... This guides them in a very specific way in that free time of where to go."

Friend said that Santa Cruz police have more than 26 square miles of area to patrol. "If you can get your beat down to such a small area and know to make a few pass-throughs, it makes it much more efficient," he said.

We have one very simple goal here," Friend said. "That's to reduce crime. It's not to arrest people. It's to deter and prevent crime from occurring."
Jesus Ayala contributed this report

Watch the video here:

Department's Predictive Policing Program Receives National Coverage

The Santa Cruz Police Department's predictive policing pilot program has received national coverage this week. The New York Times featured an article about the program and tonight ABC World News Tonight will feature a segment. Tomorrow, NBC Nightly News will run a segment on the program developed by Santa Clara University professor George Mohler.

Dr. Mohler worked with Zach Friend and the management team at Santa Cruz Police led by Chief Vogel and Deputy Chiefs Rick Martinez and Steve Clark to develop a workable interface for law enforcement. The program, started on July 1st, has been successful in predicting hot spots associated with burglaries and auto theft. While the program is too new to deem a success, the model has aided the agency in deploying resources in a more efficient and effective way. The trial period for the program ends on December 31st, at which time it will be evaluated to see if it will be continued.

Predictive Policing Provides New Patrol Model

A little over three weeks into the predictive policing trial period and we are finding the model has been valuable in confirming officer intuition and also directing patrols to areas during times we may have not focused on previously. While it's clearly too early to determine if the new model will be a success, and the trial period will go through December of this year, we are hopeful this new tool will reduce burglaries and thefts in our community.


Below you can view a collection of media coverage on the program from this last week.

Santa CruzSentinel

Santa Cruz police are the first in the nation to implement a predictive method -- which is gaining interest nationally -- and leaders are already seeing some positive changes. In the program's first three weeks, the model has proven to be 71 percent ...

Patch

The Santa Cruz Police Department is now using an "Aftershock Model" to predict where crime will occur with 71 percent accuracy. By Brad Kava Although it sounds like something from a science fiction movie, the Santa Cruz Police Department is using a ...

 

CBS San Francisco

Santa Cruz police spokesman Zach Friend said that they have had some good early results, as the new model has been accurate over 70 percent of the time. What that basically means is that when the model has told an officer to be at a ...

Santa Clara University

Imagine a world where police can predict when and where crime happens, just as meteorologists can with thunderstorms. Sounds like something out of a Hollywood sci-fi movie, but the idea is now a reality for the Santa Cruz Police Department…

Predictive Policing Program Officially Launches

The Santa Cruz Police Department officially launched the predictive policing pilot program on July 1st. Over the last few months the department has been working with Professor George Mohler from Santa Clara University on modifying the user interface to work with our agency. The department is the first in the country to use this model in directing patrol resources. Over the coming months the Los Angeles Police Department will also use the model for patrol deployment. Each day, department analyst Zach Friend will work with patrol sergeants and lieutenants on where, and when, to deploy officers. Deputy Chief Steve Clark will oversee the overall operational elements of the program.

During the last few months the department worked with Dr. Mohler to run multiple tests on the data - challenging the model for validity.  So far the model has tested quite well. Chief Kevin Vogel joined Dr. Mohler earlier this week to present information about the program to the City Council Public Safety Subcommittee.  The pilot program will run until the end of 2011. As the program progresses we will be sure to provide updates! As always, if you have any questions, feel free to contact Chief Vogel.

Department's Predictive Policing Program Featured on KSBW

The Santa Cruz Police Department has teamed up with Dr. George Mohler of Santa Clara University to be  one of the first agencies in the country to apply predictive policing to our patrol patterns. What is predictive policing? Put simply, it is the belief that certain types of crimes (like vehicle burglaries) do not occur randomly. In other words, with enough data a model could actually predict where a future crime would occur.

Dr. Mohler, working with colleagues from southern California, developed a model that uses similar methods to those that predict earthquake aftershocks. Dr. Mohler met with Chief Kevin Vogel, Crime Analyst Zach Friend and Deputy Chief Rick Martinez and Deputy Chief Steve Clark to develop structure that would work in Santa Cruz.

The Santa Cruz Police Department, and soon Los Angeles Police, will be the first in the nation to apply this specific model. In test cases we've run on the data it has been quite successful. The department will run a 6-month trial on the program starting July 1st.

KSBW did a feature story on our program- you can watch the video here.